New Zealand’s tourism forecasts for 2009 until 2015 are compiled on the basis of a variety of data sources. From the table, we can see that New Zealand uses a methodology that combines different types of variables: arrivals, expenditure, visitor nights, GDP in the main originating markets, and exchange rates. The results of this data collection process were then checked via telephone interviews and focus groups with key stakeholders in the industry: this is called a Delphi process.

Demand forecast data sources

Source: Tourism Strategy Group New Zealand (2010). Copyright protected by Crown copyright.

See the following illustration for an example of how these techniques are used to forecast international arrivals to New Zealand.

International arrivals to New Zealand

Source: Tourism Strategy Group New Zealand (2010). Copyright protected by Crown copyright.

The line beyond the dotted vertical line shows the forecasted growth for international tourism to New Zealand. The grey zone shows the opinions and amendments projected by the specialists in the Delphi process: it can be seen that some specialists are expecting higher levels of growth, others lower levels. The grey zone clearly illustrates the level of uncertainty in the tourism markets after the economic downturn that started in 2008. The historical data also show that even though tourism demand has generally grown steadily since the start of the measurements, there have been years when the growth rate was low, or when there was even a decline. A decline in arrivals between 1997 and 1999 coincided with the Iraq war and an economic downturn.