Additional case studies and snapshots

Read the below snapshots and case studies for examples appropriate to this chapter. Consolidate your learning by considering the reflective questions after the case studies.

Snapshot – New Zealand tourism demand forecast 2009–2015

New Zealand’s tourism forecasts for 2009 until 2015 are compiled on the basis of a variety of data sources. From the table, we can see that New Zealand uses a methodology that combines different types of variables: arrivals, expenditure, visitor nights, GDP in the main originating markets, and exchange rates. The results of this data collection process were then checked via telephone interviews and focus groups with key stakeholders in the industry: this is called a Delphi process.

Demand forecast data sources

Data

Coverage

Source

Countries

Years

Annual expenditure

All

1997–2008

International Visitor Survey. Ministry of Tourism

Annual outbound travel

All

1979–2008

Statistics NZ

Annual visitor arrivals

All

1979–2008

Statistics NZ

Monthly visitor arrivals

Major Markets

1979–2008

Statistics NZ

Annual visitor nights

All

1979–2008

Statistics NZ

Domestic travel

All

1999–2008

Domestic Travel Survey, Ministry of Tourism

Real GDP and exchange rates

Major Markets

1979–2009

Various sources

Source: Tourism Strategy Group New Zealand (2010). Copyright protected by Crown copyright.

See the following illustration for an example of how these techniques are used to forecast international arrivals to New Zealand.

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International arrivals to New Zealand

Source: Tourism Strategy Group New Zealand (2010). Copyright protected by Crown copyright.

The line beyond the dotted vertical line shows the forecasted growth for international tourism to New Zealand. The grey zone shows the opinions and amendments projected by the specialists in the Delphi process: it can be seen that some specialists are expecting higher levels of growth, others lower levels. The grey zone clearly illustrates the level of uncertainty in the tourism markets after the economic downturn that started in 2008. The historical data also show that even though tourism demand has generally grown steadily since the start of the measurements, there have been years when the growth rate was low, or when there was even a decline. A decline in arrivals between 1997 and 1999 coincided with the Iraq war and an economic downturn.